We present Bayesian updating of an imprecise probability measure, represented by a class of precise multidimensional probability measures. Choice and analysis of our class are motivated by expert interviews that we conducted with modelers in the context of climatic change. From the interviews we...

Selecting appropriate indicators is essential to aggregate the information provided by climate model outputs into a manageable set of relevant metrics on which assessments of climate engineering (CE) can be based. From all the variables potentially available from climate models, indicators need...

Cost-Risk Analysis (CRA) is a method to mathematically deduce preferences in line with a climate target. CRA is a trade-off, where costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions are weighted against the risk of exceeding climate targets. CRA enables a community supporting climate targets to...

Strong sustanbility demands that decisions on climate mitigation be guided by a climate target and that compliance with the target be the primary concern prior to saving mitigation cost. Climate targets have often been formulated as temperature targets and for the case of uncertainty about...

Cost risk analysis (CRA) is currently emerging as a noticed decision-analytic framework within the field of climate economics. It combines the expected utility-based structure of cost benefit analysis (CBA) with the target-based approach of cost effectiveness analysis (CEA). As such, it offers a...

Side-effects of "solar-radiation management" (SRM) might be perceived as an important metric when society decides on implementing SRM as a climate policy option to alleviate anthropogenic global warming. We generalize cost-risk analysis that originally trades-off expected welfare-loss from...

This article investigates the trade-off between increasing welfare losses and increasing peak-warming if a temperature target is reformulated as a subsidiary concentration or cumulative emissions target. We apply a welfare maximizing integrated assessment model for a deterministic...