Alle Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen gehen von einer starken Schrumpfung bei gleichzeitiger Alterung der Bevölkerung in Deutschland aus. Derartige Schätzungen sind möglich, weil die demographische Entwicklung der kommenden Jahrzehnte zu einem erheblichen Teil durch Entwicklungen der...

This paper investigates how demographic change affects the financial sustainability of a defined benefit pay-as-you-go social security system in an environment with collective bargaining on the labor market. Temporary equilibrium analysis shows that the contribution rate decreases, if the...

In seinem Kommentar nimmt Eckart Bomsdorf, Universität zu Köln, Stellung zu den Rentenreformplänen der Bundesregierung. Seiner Meinung nach enthält der Gesetzesentwurf sowohl Positives, z.B. bei der Erwerbsminderungsrente, als auch Widersprüchliches, z.B. bei der sogenannten Rente mit 63....

Immer weniger Beitragszahler müssen zukünftig für immer mehr Rentner aufkommen. Gerade mit dem Eintritt der Babyboomer-Generation in die Rente steigt der Rentenquotient deutlich an. In einer Simulationsrechnung wird die voraussichtliche Entwicklung des Beitragssatzes zur Gesetzlichen...

The currently observed demographic change consists of two independent develop-ments that differ in structure and persistence: (1) A slow, monotonic and (presum-ably) permanent ageing effect caused by an increasing life expectancy; (2) a morerapidly changing, non-monotonic and less permanent...

We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We use a rich model of human capital investment, public health insurance,...

Trade in goods that are not perfect substitutes can considerably change the predictions of standard neoclassical models about the effects of asymmetric demographic developments. This paper considers a relative decrease in the population size of one country, when countries specialize in the...

This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median...

In their recent paper, Boldrin and Montes (2005) analyze the "return on human capital investment" theory and show that if borrowing for education is not possible, then a combined public education and pension system that uses lump sum taxes and transfers can replicate the first-best decentralized...

The aging of the global population is in the headlines following a report that China's population fell as deaths surpassed births. Pundits worry that a declining Chinese workforce means trouble for other economies that have come to rely on China's exports. France is pushing through an increase...