The global financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession raised concerns about adjustment fatigue, deflation, currency wars, and secular stagnation that presented a sense of deja vu: similar concerns had arisen at the time of the Great Depression and at the end of World War II. As with...

Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset...

Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for...

To better respond to the unprecedented demand from the membership for financing and crisis support in response to the covid-19 pandemic, there is a temporary postponement of staff's work on Article IV consultations and mandatory Financial Stability Assessments. To ensure the postponement has no...

Chapter 1 of the report draws some early lessons from governments' fiscal responses to the pandemic and provides a roadmap for the recovery. Governments' measures to cushion the blow from the pandemic total a staggering USD 12 trillion globally. These lifelines and the worldwide recession have...

This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large...

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit...

pt. 1. Understanding cycles and growth -- pt. 2. Uncertainty and information in business cycle models -- pt. 3. Formal models of the business cycle -- pt. 4. Empirical and institutional factors in cycles and growth.