Ein harter Brexit ist für das Vereinigte Königreich sehr viel teurer als für die EU. Mit einer »Hard-but-Smart«-Strategie dagegen würde das UK unilateral auf alle neuen Barrieren, also völlig auf Importzölle, verzichten. Damit ist der prozentuelle Wohlfahrtsverlust des UK und jener auf...

This collection of scholarly articles summarizes the main topics from a two-year dialogue and research programme between the Chinese Institute of International Studies (CIIS) and the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) on the concepts of Building a...

Risk-free rates have been falling since the 1980s while the return on capital has not. We analyze these trends in a calibrated OLG model with recursive preferences, designed to encompass many of the "usual suspects" cited in the debate on secular stagnation. Declining labor force and...

This paper examines the causal link between foreign investment and firm performance in six small open economies in the European Union. Specifically, using micro data for manufacturing and services over the period 2001–2009, we analyse the effects of foreign mergers and acquisitions on labour...

European Union and the United States have decided to start negotiations over a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Among other things, the agreement would include a reduction in trade and investment barriers as well as barriers against participation in public procurement projects. If...

This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...

This paper explores offshoring of firms’ research and development functions. Our analysis employs a previously untapped and unique Eurostat International Sourcing Survey. The results are easy to summarize. First, the magnitude of R&D offshoring is small. Second, a large majority of R&D is...

In this report we document the ETLAnow project. ETLAnow is a model for forecasting with big data. At the moment, it predicts the unemployment rate in the EU-28 countries using Google search data. This document is subject to updates as the ETLAnow project advances.

The financial crisis and its ensuing effects have brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles and of policies which fuel or mitigate crises. Cognitive and operational models in economics and business are questioned. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized...