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. We find that our implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure, jointly derived from index and single stock options, explains … behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, and is linked to equity market sentiment and higher moments of the risk-neutral density … investors' overweight of tail events well. When employed within a trading strategy, our IV-sentiment measure delivers …
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-neutral density. An implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure that is jointly derived from index and single stock options explains … investors' overweight of tail events the best. Our findings also suggest that IV-sentiment predicts equity markets reversals … that this behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, linked to equity market sentiment, and higher moments of the risk …
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We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option implied variables for monthly S & P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) emerges as a strong predictor of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample....
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