Distancing policy interventions (DPIs) were aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic, but they also likely affected economic activity. This paper estimates the effects of DPIs on selected indicators of monthly economic activity, such as industrial and manufacturing production, construction...

Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking...

Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as...

To unveil the strategic interaction between the government and the labour union in a unionised economy, a policy-game model is estimated by cointegrated Vector Autoregressive system using Italian quarterly data (1960-2009) on government budget surplus (fiscal efforts), hours not worked...

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation...

We evaluate the macroeconomic impact of the legislative proposals contained in the third pillar of the Investment Plan for Europe using the RHOMOLO modelling framework. In particular, we study a number of proposals related to the Capital Markets Union, the Single Market Strategy, the Digital...

In this paper we assess the system-wide economic impact of the key financial instruments adopted by the European Union for the implementation of the regional policy: The Structural funds and The Cohesion Funds. We take a bottom-up approach by aggregating the 86 categories of expenditures defined...

In this note we present the economic impact assessment of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) for thematic objectives TO1 "Research and innovation" and TO4 "Low-carbon economy" in the region of Apulia, Italy. The results are based on the RHOMOLO-IO demand multiplier analysis and on...

The existing literature on fiscal policy has mainly employed linear models that found a small fiscal multiplier in developing economies. These findings challenge the importance and e↵ectiveness of fiscal policy for these countries. However, linear models are not capable of distinguishing the...

The existing literature on fiscal policy has mainly employed linear models that found a small fiscal multiplier in developing economies. These findings challenge the importance and effectiveness of fiscal policy for these countries. However, linear models are not capable of distinguishing the...