The purpose of this paper is to calculate the expected reliability benefits of alternative water supplies that are less vulnerable to disruption than the current composition of supplies, especially those regions which rely on imported surface water. Expected reliability benefits are measured...

Kleijnen proposed using Ordinary Least Squares method combining with experimental design to estimate polynomial regression metamodels, but I/O data violates some classical assumptions of OLS as the correlation between output which due to common random numbers and Heterogeneous variances which...

In various fields of applications such as capital allocation, sensitivity analysis and systemic risk evaluation, one often needs to compute or estimate the expectation of a random variable given that another random variable is equal to its quantile at some pre-specified probability level. A...

Option is a kind of financial derivative, which has been developed rapidly for many years. How to price option is the most important issue of option trading. We should not only know the direction of the influence of various factors on the option price, but also the extent of the factors. In...

The amount of estimation uncertainty contained in financial statement items may be obscured from investors, given that all estimates, regardless of their imprecision, are reported as precise figures on the face of the financial statements. Our study examines two disclosures expected to help...

We consider inference in models defined by approximate moment conditions. We show that near-optimal confidence intervals (CIs) can be formed by taking a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, and adding and subtracting the standard error times a critical value that takes into account...

This paper proposes a simple and crude way of approximating the XVA sensitivities. In short, the idea is simply to recycle the existing base simulated portfolio values for the bumped ones. This is done by re-simulating the risk factors for the bumped market and finding out which other base state...

We consider inference in models defined by approximate moment conditions. We show that near-optimal confidence intervals (CIs) can be formed by taking a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, and adding and subtracting the standard error times a critical value that takes into account...

Integrated assessment modeling studies the nexus between the systems of climate and economy, both known for their high complexity and vast uncertainty. One key question is how sensitive climate policy inference produced by such models is to the uncertainty in their initial assumptions and the...

We argue that managers' choice to manage earnings depends on the trade-off in the present value of expected future net benefits associated with that choice. Specifically, we examine if discount rates are associated with the likelihood that managers engage in earnings management to meet or beat...