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The Federal Reserve's output gap : the unreliability of real-time reliability tests
Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H. - In: Journal of applied econometrics 38 (2023) 7, pp. 1101-1111
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014474421
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The trend-cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve : Bayesian estimates for Italy and the Euro area
Busetti, Fabio; Caivano, Michele - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 50 (2016) 4, pp. 1565-1587
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011481732
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Understanding inflation dynamics in the Euro Area : deviants and commonalities across member countries
Amberger, Johanna; Fendel, Ralf - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 44 (2017) 2, pp. 261-293
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782897
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Revisions of potential output estimates in the EU after the Great Recession
Dovern, Jonas; Zuber, Christopher - 2019
Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026398
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Rules-based monetary policy and the threat of indeterminacy when trend inflation is low
Khan, Hashmat; Phaneuf, Louis; Victor, Jean Gardy - In: Journal of monetary economics 114 (2020), pp. 317-333
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012494962
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The European Commission's new NAIRU : does it deliver?
Gechert, Sebastian; Rietzler, Katja; Tober, Silke - 2014
unemployment. This calls in question both the interpretation of potential output estimates as barriers to more vigorous inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458229
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The European Commission's new NAIRU : does it deliver?
Gechert, Sebastian; Rietzler, Katja; Tober, Silke - In: Applied economics letters 23 (2016) 1/3, pp. 6-10
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011414065
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Output gaps
Kiley, Michael T. - In: Journal of macroeconomics 37 (2013), pp. 1-18
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010237947
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Assessment Criteria for Output Gap Estimates
Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo; Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego - 2021
using output, inflation and unemployment systems. In order to assess the reliability of an output gap estimate two criteria … are adopted. Firstly, the estimate should have forecasting power over inflation. Secondly, the ex post statistical … hand, our UC models for the output gap have limited forecasting power for inflation, since they underperform an arbitrary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320291
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Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309596