Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

We provide a new method to derive the state price density per unit probability based on option prices and GARCH model. We derive the risk neutral distribution using the result in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and the historical density adapting the GARCH model of Barone-Adesi, Engle, and...

If a probability distribution is sufficiently close to a normal distribution, its density can be approximated by the truncated Gram-Charlier series where skewness and kurtosis directly appear as parameters. However, the existing literature is restricted to truncating the series expansion until...

In this paper, we provide a new dynamic asset pricing model for plain vanilla options and we discuss its ability to produce minimum mispricing errors on equity option books. Given the historical measure, the dynamics of assets are modeled by GARCH-type models with generalized hyperbolic...