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This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443536
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
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important domestic source of risk. -- Early warning indicators ; Bayesian model averaging ; panel VAR ; dynamic panel ; macro … overcome several pitfalls of the previous contributions. We use a quarterly panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period … literature and our own considerations. For each potential indicator we determine the optimal lead employing panel vector …
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