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predictability by focusing on Canada to reassess the growing U.S.-based evidence casting doubt on predictability. Using monthly data … meaningful predictability of the Canadian equity premium, providing guidance on each variable as a market indicator. Our results …
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motivated predictors rather than dilute the importance of economic theory for equity premium predictability. Yet, each predictor …-step procedure that (1) imposes a dogmatic view on a given economic theory to forecast the equity premium, and (2) exploits the …
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We propose and test a new channel that links funding liquidity risk and interest rates in short-term funding markets. Borrowers with high liquidity risk are willing to pay a markup to lock in their funding, independent of risk premiums demanded by lenders. We test the channel using unique...
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Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with...
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