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Taking into consideration the specifics of the Russian economy such as dependency on oil and gas drilling & production, and including the current context of the Western sanctions, COVID-19 pandemic, as well as somewhat idiosyncratic potential output development, the main aim of this paper is to...
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The literature on the finance-growth nexus highlights the importance of the financial cycle for the estimation of …
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We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...
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methods applied for their estimation are as accurate as possible. A bivariate Kalman Filter (KF) model using capacity … utilisation (CU) as the second series has been proven to produce more reliable estimates of the Total Factor Productivity (TFP … the first-best approach for future TFP cycle estimation. This paper compares the existing method to an approach which uses …
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