This paper studies natural gas futures returns on EIA storage announcement days. More than 50% of the annual return is earned on these days. We find a significant difference between announcement and non-announcement day returns, which cannot be explained by the announcement surprise or other...

This paper studies comovements in commodity futures markets. We compare factor models with respect to their fit of commodity return comovements. A model based on traded long-short portfolio returns outperforms a macroeconomic model, and explains 96% of the realised comovement. Dissecting the...

Using more than 140 years of data, we comprehensively analyze the predictive power of a broad set of macroeconomic variables for risk and return in commodity spot markets. We find that industrial production growth and inflation are the strongest predictors for future commodity excess returns....

By studying 81 countries over a period of up to 144 years, with different classes of predictor variables and various forecast specifications, we conduct the most comprehensive equity premium predictability analysis to date. We find that excess returns are more predictable in Emerging and...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. Studying all MSCI Developed and Emerging Markets countries, we find that the tail risk of these countries is highly integrated. We find that both local and our newly computed global tail risk strongly predict global equity index...

This paper examines the properties of the gold risk premium. We estimate a parsimonious model for the gold risk premium and uncover important time variations in the dynamics of the risk premium. We also estimate the risk premia of the stock and bond markets and investigate their co-movements....

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is...

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic, and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...

Researchers and practitioners face many choices when estimating an asset's sensitivities toward risk factors, i.e., betas. Using the entire U.S. stock universe and a sample period of more than 50 years, we find that a historical estimator based on daily return data with an exponential weighting...

We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the Price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance...