This paper discusses how the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) is affected by introducing … the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate. As a benchmark I adopt a common BVAR specification, including 18 variables …

accurate BVAR model used to forecast external demand provides an unbiased forecast and also yields a better forecast of turning … external demand forecast faster than is currently possible. The external demand forecast helps to forecast exports and, through … with the help thereof - their external demand, relying on BVAR models and using monthly time series (confidence indices …

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when … the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast … optimally does not improve forecast accuracy; (e) all variants except the large BVAR tend to be well calibrated for inflation …

show that the BVAR model can improve the forecast ability of the univariate autoregressive benchmark's model of inflation …. The Giacomini-White test indicates that a BVAR performs better than the benchmark in all forecast horizons. Statistical … corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation for Argentina, which …

indicates that a BVAR performs better than the benchmark in all forecast horizons. Statistical differences between the two BVAR … desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation for Argentina, which includes autoregressive … models and different scale Bayesian VARs (BVAR), and compares their relative accuracy. The results show that the BVAR model …