This study introduces and evaluates a bottom-up methodology for projecting the Gross Value-Added of the agricultural sector (agricultural GDP). This approach integrates econometric methods with early crop forecasts, which are released one year ahead of annual production figures by specialized...

It is proposed to estimate two versions of the potential output for Brazil in the period 1992-2010, through the production function and the HP filter, and use these results to: i) assess the relevance of the output gap in the monetary policy decisions (comparing the two estimates); and ii) to...

Fixed Capital has a major role in economic growth literature and on the estimation of potential output using a production function - which is essential to design macroeconomic policy. One of the main contributions of this work, differently from the previous works, is to estimate the capital...

This study seeks to quantify the stock of human capital in the Brazilian economy from 1970 to 2010. We chose to use the IBGE Demographic Census microdata, because, contrary to what is done in other studies - which use fi xed rates of return for all periods and/or regions of the country - this...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...