Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2009
evidence of autonomous variance breaks and inflation gap persistence. Through a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise …This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we …