model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence …We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

economies. In the environment of low inflation, the fading relationship between the price dynamics and the adjustments in the … hybrid NKPC parameters. The results advocate that a statistically significant relationship between inflation and the domestic … flatten as the inflation's sensitivity with respect to changes in economic slack diminishes. That notwithstanding, the impact …

inflation are co-breaking. We argue that the step-like development of inflation is in line with shocks and monetary policy that …% inflation was accomplished by introducing an inflation targeting regime …

curve holds true, theoretical inflation persistence will be shown to arise exclusively because of inertia in marginal cost … countries. In an influential contribution, Galí and Gertler (1999) have suggested building theoretical inflation series …. The resulting model's inflation dynamics can straightforwardly be tested without the need to estimate the structural …

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro … area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence … across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence …

Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime … price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The results are informative for … assessing the likelihood and risks of meeting certain inflation targets on a sustained basis …

the interaction between partial indexation and trend inflation. We show that using a hybrid version of the Phillips curve … partly decreases the risks of overestimate due to the omission of trend inflation. We also provide new evidence on the fit of …) forgetting trend inflation induces overestimating by approximately 3-4 percent of the probability to not change the price, for …