The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …

importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also …

The paper focuses on the measurement of the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment) for the euro area … at the aggregate level. After reviewing the theoretical framework underlying the most common estimation approaches, it …, methodologies and choice of the inflation indicator. They also show significant inflation forecasting ability and are able to …

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A … critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which … is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core …

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017 …-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in …

This paper examines the relationship between the output gap and inflation in Japan by estimating Phillips curves and … testing for changes since the advent of low inflation and/or the stabilisation of the rate of change of inflation. The work … provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a change in the relationship between output and inflation in an environment of …

The difficulty in modelling inflation and the significance in discovering the underlying data generating process of … inflation is expressed in an ample literature regarding inflation forecasting. In this paper we evaluate nonlinear machine … learning and econometric methodologies in forecasting the U.S. inflation based on autoregressive and structural models of the …

1851-2013 by estimating a multivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH model (with the unemployment rate and inflation as explanatory …

applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation. …

We estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the USA from 1997 to 2019 using expected inflation from financial … instruments. We use a spliced series comprised of the TIPS spread and inflation swaps. Empirical tests find higher coefficients on … backward-looking inflation than forward-looking, except for the 2009 – 2015 period of zero lower bound Fed Funds rate target …