Assuming that a time series incorporates 'signal' and 'noise' components, we propose a method to estimate the extent of the 'noise' component by considering the smoothing properties of the state-space of the time series. A mild degree of smoothing in the state-space, applied using a Kalman...

A black-box optimization problem is considered, in which the function to be optimized can only be expressed in terms of a complicated stochastic algorithm that takes a long time to evaluate. The value returned is required to be sufficiently near to a target value, and uses data that has a...

Regulatory requirements dictate that financial institutions must calculate risk capital (funds that must be retained to cover future losses) at least annually. Procedures for doing this have been well-established for many years, but recent developments in the treatment of conduct risk (the risk...

We study the effects of delivering a shock to a complex system comprising components ('agents') that interact in a pairwise fashion, independent of other parts of the system and with no central control. Such pairwise interactions ensure that the system develops with time in a self-determining...