In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errorsfor export growth than … expectations. However, largecountry differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. Thesedifferences are …. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition toexplain differences in forecast accuracy. …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

, panel estimates for a large number of OECD countries suggest that the high import-intensity of exports at the country … import-intensive expenditure category of investment also contributed to the remaining fall in global trade. At the same time …, the high and rising import-intensity of exports also reflects and captures the rapid growth in "vertical specialisation …

during 2009Q2-2010Q1. The paper finds that a structural imports function which captures the different and time-varying import … suggest that the high import-intensity of exports at the country-level can explain a significant proportion of the decline in … world imports during the crisis, while declines in the highly import-intensive expenditure category of investment also …

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errorsfor export growth than … expectations. However, largecountry differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. Thesedifferences are …. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition toexplain differences in forecast accuracy. …