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The Role of Stickiness, Extrapolation and Past Consensus Forecasts in Macroeconomic Expectations

Lustenhouwer, Joep; Hagenhoff, Tim - 2021

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … the point that using the past consensus forecast to form expectations is a reasonable thing to do if a forecaster is not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323247

Forward guidance and the private forecast disagreement : case of Poland

Rybacki, Jakub - In: Bank i kredyt 50 (2019) 4, pp. 411-428

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012502792

The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations

Hagenhoff, Tim; Lustenhouwer, Joep - 2020

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … forecast to form expectations is a reasonable thing to do if a forecaster is not able to come up with fully rational …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309179

The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations

Hagenhoff, Tim; Lustenhouwer, Joep - 2020

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … forecast to form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an … own rational forecast to fail. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012253204

Long-term government bond yelds and economic forecast : evidence for the EUh

Afonso, António - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011571884

Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle

Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - In: International journal of forecasting 33 (2017) 4, pp. 760-769

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746905

Forward Guidance and the Private Forecast Disagreement – Case of Poland

Rybacki, Jakub Pawel - 2019

During the period of policy easing in 2013 and prospective tightening in 2017−2019, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) applied forward guidance to manage the expectations of market participants. The goal of the policy was to lower the uncertainty related to the future interest rate decisions. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014103886

Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations

Cornand, Camille; Hubert, Paul - In: European economic review : EER 146 (2022), pp. 1-24

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013348958

Building central bank credibility : the role of forecast performance

McMahon, Michael; Rholes, Ryan - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014435471

The Nordhaus test with many zeros

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhao, Yongchen - In: Economics letters 193 (2020), pp. 1-4

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509104

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