The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider fundamental factors like the net long position and oil...

Das vorliegende Papier schätzt auf Basis eines Probit-Modells die Wendepunkte des ifo-Geschäftserwartungsindex. Die übliche Vorgehensweise in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur wird um zwei Aspekte erweitert: Erstens werden zusätzlich zu einzelnen Variablen sogenannte Faktoren berücksichtigt,...

In the present paper we analyse whether fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model of interest rate determination in which risk premia are...

To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolishment as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower bound. The key question in this respect is: What are the costs of such a proposal? We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower...

To broaden the operational scope of monetary policy, several authors suggest cash abolishment as an appropriate means of breaking through the zero lower bound. The key question in this respect is: What are the costs of such a proposal? We argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower...

Seit der Finanzkrise verfolgt die FED einen sehr expansiven geldpolitischen Kurs. Die Zinsen wurden auf historische Niedrigstniveaus gesenkt, darüber hinaus griff die FED auf verschiedene Maßnahmen quantitativer Lockerungen zurück. Trotz dieser Ereignisse zeigen die ökonometrischen Analysen...

To broaden the scope of monetary policy, cash abolishment is often suggested as a means of breaking through the zero lower bound. However, practically nothing is said about the welfare costs of such a proposal. Rösl, Seitz and Tödter argue that the welfare costs of bypassing the zero lower...

This study investigates the benefits of cash in a general context. First, we explicitly address the arguments of cash critics, who are calling for cash to be abolished altogether. Second, we show that cash plays a crucial role in the current two-tier banking system. Third, we are discussing a...