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High uncertainty is an inherent implication of the zero lower bound, while deflation is not because of inflationary pressure due to uncertainty about how debt will be stabilized. We show that policy uncertainty empirically accounts for the absence of deflation in the US economy. Announcing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035011
We develop a theoretical framework to account for the observed instability of the link between inflation and fiscal imbalances across time and countries. Current policy makers behavior influences agents ' beliefs about the way debt will be stabilized. The standard policy mix consists of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080961
While high uncertainty is an inherent implication of the economy entering the zero lower bound, deflation is not, because agents are likely to be uncertain about the way policymakers will deal with the large stock of debt arising from a severe recession. We draw this conclusion based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439777
We study the impact of a government spending shock on the distribution of income and wealth between cohorts in a dynamic stochastic Overlapping Generations model with two types of households, Ricardian households and rule-of-thumb consumers. We demonstrate that an unexpected increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458011
government sector and a share of credit-constrained households. We simulate permanent cuts in government consumption, government … investment, and transfer payments as well as permanent increases in the labor, capital and consumption tax rate. We find that … respect to welfare gains cuts in government consumption rank highest because they yield the largest increase in private …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486056
It is shown empirically that, for the US economy, fiscal stimulus has increased total consumption, but has depressed … potential collapse into a Keynesian economic black hole. A theory of economic growth is proposed to explain how fiscal stimulus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998654
This paper analyzes the redistributive channel of a money financed fiscal stimulus (MFFS). It shows that the way in which this regime is implemented is crucial to determine its redistributive effects and consequently its effectiveness. In normal times, the most effective regime is a MFFS with no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962123
Using VAR analysis on US data, we show that unanticipated fiscal expansions boost private consumption and business … crowding-in of both consumption and entry can be generated only under very specific assumptions. In a static model with full … such that future profits are high enough to generate entry. However, consumption falls for conventional parameter values …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339394
, it is shown that government expenditures can cause a rise in private consumption, real wages, and employment if the … to decline. Households are willing to raise consumption if monetary policy is active, i.e. ensures that the real interest … rate rises with inflation. Otherwise, private consumption can also be crowded-out, as in the conventional case where …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343264
During the Great Recession following the recent financial crisis large fiscal stimuli were implemented to counteract labor market sclerosis. We explore the effectiveness of various fiscal packages in a matching model featuring inefficient unemployment and a rich fiscal sector employing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009157603