This paper exploits information contained in cross-sectional PEG ratios to extract estimates of the market's expectations for aggregate returns and economic fundamentals. By combining the loglinear present-valuation model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) logic, we establish a theoretic...

This paper addresses this question with an asset-pricing model featuring endogenous corporate policies. Long-run risk reflects a firm's profit exposure to slowly-moving expected consumption growth, whereas short-run risk captures the exposure to frequent unexpected changes in consumption growth....

Neely et al. (2014) have recently demonstrated how to efficiently combine information from a set of popular technical indicators together with the standard Goyal and Welch (2008) predictor variables widely used in the equity premium forecasting literature to improve out-of-sample forecasts of...

In contrast to earlier decades, since the early 2000s, the average idiosyncratic volatility of stocks has fallen back to its pre-1990s level. Here, we examine whether decreasing volatility still helps to explain the cross-sectional variation of bond returns. Using a panel data of corporate bond...

We document that the first and third cross-sectional moments of corporate bond returns significantly and positively predict future stock market returns both in- and out-of-sample. The predictability emerges from informed bond trading and gradual diffusion of information. Particularly, the...

We document strong evidence of cross-sectional predictability of corporate bond returns based on a set of yield predictors that capture the information in the yields of past 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months. Return predictability is economically and statistically significant, and is robust to...

We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that...

We evaluate the impact of the Federal Reserve corporate credit facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF). A third of the positive effect on prices and liquidity occurred on the announcement date. We document immediate pass through into primary markets, particularly for eligible issuers. Improvements continue...