We evaluate the impact of the Federal Reserve corporate credit facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF). A third of the positive effect on prices and liquidity occurred on the announcement date. We document immediate pass-through into primary markets, particularly for eligible issuers. Improvements continue...

We propose a tractable model of a firm's dynamic debt and equity issuance policies in the presence of asymmetric information. Because "investment-grade" firms can access debt markets, managers who observe a bad private signal can both conceal this information and shield shareholders from...

This paper investigates the pricing of bank loans relative to capital market debt. The analysis uses a novel sample of loans matched with bond spreads from the same firm on the same date. After accounting for seniority, lenders earn a large premium relative to the bond-implied credit spread. In...

We analyze U.S. stock return predictability using a measure of credit standards (Standards) derived from the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Standards is a strong predictor of stock returns at a business cycle frequency, especially in the...

This paper systematically investigates the sources of differential out-of-sample predictive accuracy of heuristic frameworks based on internet search frequencies and a large set of econometric models. The volume of internet searches helps gauge the degree of investors' time-varying interest in...

We develop a new variational Bayes estimation method for large-dimensional sparse vector autoregressive models with exogenous predictors. Unlike existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms, our approach is not based on a structural form representation of the...

Previous research finds that machine learning methods predict short-term return variation in the cross-section of stocks, even when these methods do not impose strict economic restrictions. However, without such restrictions, the models' predictions fail to generalize in a number of important...

Purpose: The aim of our paper is twofold. First, we examine the predictive ability of log bookmarket, dividend-price, earnings-price and dividend-earnings ratios on the most recent data set of the strongest securities in the UK economy; unlike the majority of the studies in this data set, our...

This paper introduces a new tail risk measure based on the risk-neutral excess expected shortfall of a cross-section of stock returns. We propose a novel way to risk neutralize the returns without relying on option price information. Empirically, we illustrate our methodology by estimating a...

This paper presents a new procedure for forecasting recessions utilizing short-term (slope) dynamics present in the yield curve. Building on a large body of literature chronicling the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the business cycle, this paper employs Dynamic...