yield curve forecasts while explaining the stylized facts of the term structure of interest rates. It is flexible enough to …-, and 12-month out-of-sample forecasts with statistical significance at 1, 3, and 6 months. Interestingly, it prefers the …, some relevant hyperparameters need to vary with the forecast horizon rather than uniformly in order to improve forecasting …

decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies … that more basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability …

machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs … that are available to all investors. We measure disagreement as dispersion in forecasts across investor-models. Our measure … aligns with extant measures of disagreement (e.g., analyst forecast dispersion), but is a significantly stronger predictor of …

valuation. In our empirical application, we use 𝑄 to relate analyst forecasts to stock returns and measure the profitability of … investment strategies that rely on information in analyst earnings-per-share forecasts and stock prices. Over a time period of …-financing trading strategies yield annualized Fama and French five-factor alphas of up %-|-|-|. These strategies clearly outperform …

components: earnings forecasts, target prices, and buy/sell recommendations. An important question for investment managers is … then, how accurate are the forecasts of fundamental analysts? In this research, we tackle this question by investigating a … total of 43 086 analyst forecasts made on South African equities over the 15-year period from January 2004 to June 2018.We …

ability to forecast stock prices. We show that these persistent differences in accuracy are driven instead by stock return … volatility. Building upon option pricing theory, we construct a measure of forecast quality that controls for stock return … volatility and forecast horizon. Contrary to previous studies, which failed to properly account for differences in stock return …

affecting firms under coverage. We find that temporarily distracted analysts achieve lower forecast accuracy, revise forecasts … less frequently, and publish less informative forecast revisions relative to non-distracted analysts. Further, at the firm …

market participants. Specifically, we examine the changes of analyst forecast behavior during influenza epidemics when … associated with lower degree of disagreement on target-price forecasts among financial analysts. More interestingly, analysts are … allocated to their work affects analysts' forecast behavior; as a result, their ability to act as an important source of …

analyst forecasts of that report on U.S. Treasury securities market. Surprise increases in total non-farm payroll employment …. Interest rates also react to subsequent revisions of the payroll employment figures. Analyst forecasts as compiled by Bloomberg … are unbiased forecasts of the BLS numbers and correctly anticipate most employment level changes. Moreover, there is …