This paper re-examines the validity of the Phillips-Curve framework using US data. We make three main innovations. First, we introduce into the well-known Calvo price staggering framework, a regime-dependent price-changing signal. This means that a state-dependent linearization is no longer...

Conventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate...

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a...