This paper contributes to the literature on secular stagnation by estimating a measure of potential output growth for the post-war US economy derived from a novel model specification that allows for the cyclical interactions between income distribution, represented by the trajectory of the labor...

We propose a novel methodological approach to disentangle the main structural shocks affecting the US labour share of income during the immediate post-war era (1948Q1- 1984Q4) and the Great Moderation (1985Q1-2018Q3). We motivate a SVAR model in aggregate demand, unemployment rate, real wage and...

This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin's seminal 1967 chapter titled "A growth cycle." We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite significant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads...

This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin's seminal 1967 chapter titled "A growth cycle." We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite significant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads...

This paper presents a classical-Keynesian one sector model of labor-constrained growth that explains secular stagnation as the result of structural change. Structural change is defined as an exogenous increase in the employment share of stagnant activities, which exhibit no or low labor...

The stylized facts of neoliberalism include a decline in steady state rate of growth and labor share. Recent classical-Keynesian literature sees the latter as a cause for the former. A crucial element is the distinction between short and long run. The business cycle is profit-led and...

This paper studies two formal models of long run growth with a medium-run distributive cycle, both of which feature causal links from the rise in inequality to a deterioration of long run macroeconomic performance. Both versions feature an endogenous income-capital ratio: one through the...

We explore four decades of cyclical and long-run dynamics in income distribution and economic activity for a panel of thirteen OECD countries, as measured by the wage share and the output gap. When modeled as a Goodwin model, our results suggest that economic activity is weakly profit-led and...