This paper purports to apply the Kydland-Prescott framework of dynamic inconsistency to the case of fiscal policy, by considering the trade-off between output and debt stabilization. The Government budget constraint provides the link between debt dynamics and the level of activity, influenced by...

In a recent paper, Minea and Villieu (2009) assert that the 'golden rule of public finance' implies a lower growth rate than the balanced-budget rule. Their contribution is misleading because it is not the 'golden rule of public finance' that generates their result but rather the fact that...

This paper employs an endogenous growth model to study the growth and welfare effects of the golden rule of public finance. Two versions are compared, whereby government deficits are restricted for the use of public investments. It is shown that the growth effect of the golden rule depends on...

This paper explores the political economy of fiscal adjustment. It begins with an examination of the evidence for, and sources of, ‘deficit bias', including political and governance factors, public attitudes, the role of financial markets and imprecision about which debt targets should be...

This paper analyzes the effects of time-consistent capital taxation on the level of capital and welfare. We find that a commitment to a zero capital tax shifts the time inconsistency problem towards labor taxes and the provision of public consumption. By comparing the worst time-consistent...

This paper examines a dynamic stochastic economy with a benevolent government that cannot commit to future policies. Following Phelan and Stacchetti (2001), we consider sequential sustainable equilibria (SSE). We numerically solve for the set of equilibrium payoffs, and investigate whether the...

This paper is linked to two debates on fiscal policies: first, the implications of low interest-growth differentials for debt sustainability and, second, the reform of the EU fiscal governance framework. In both debates the choice of government debt anchor and the speed of adjustment take centre...

In the paper we show that, most of the time, smooth reduction in the debt ratio is optimal for tax-smoothing purposes when fiscal risks are asymmetric, with large debt-augmenting shocks more likely than commensurate debt reducing shocks. Asymmetric risks are a feature of 200 years of data for...

This commentary critically analyzes the debate between ‘deficit financing' and ‘deficit-reduction financing' in contemporary economics. Reading through the paper by Ann Pettifor (2019), one gets the impression that deficits don't matter and that fiscal consolidation has not improved the...

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts.We...