Against the backdrop of Baumol’s model of ‘unbalanced growth’, a recent strand of literature has presented models that manage to reconcile structural change with Kaldor’s ‘stylized fact’ of the relative constancy of per-capita GDP growth. Another strand of literature goes beyond...

In a recent paper, I argued that Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' offers a ready explanation for the observed secular rise in Health Care Expenditure (HCE) in rich countries. Baumol's model implies that HCE is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. I tested this...

I investigate whether demand growth and productivity growth in Switzerland have benefitted from the wage moderation that set in at the beginning of the 1990s in this country. The results suggest that the Swiss demand regime is profit-led while the productivity regime is wage-led. This means on...

This text presents the latest economic forecast conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich on 21 June 2013. After an introduction describing the starting points and crucial assumptions underlying the forecast, we summarise the key results for Switzerland. Subsequently, we...

I investigate whether demand growth and productivity growth in Switzerland have benefitted from the wage moderation that set in at the beginning of the 1990s in this country. The results suggest that the Swiss demand regime is profit-led while the productivity regime is wageled. This means on...

The paper combines Baumol’s model of structural change with a model of aggregate demand growth in the Keynesian-Kaleckian tradition to predict the dynamics of aggregate employment. The model for the demand regime is estimated with – and Baumol’s model for the productivity regime is...

This text presents the economic forecast of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich on 23 September 2013. After an introduction describing the starting points and crucial assumptions underlying the forecast, we summarise the key results for Switzerland. Then we turn to the international...

The Bhaduri-Marglin model is a post-Kaleckian model that allows for studying the impact of functional income distribution on the growth in demand. Over recent years, a number of empirical studies based on this model have aimed at determining whether a redistribution towards profits harms or...

This paper is a contribution to a symposium mutually reviewing papers on Keynes's principle of effective demand as set out in The General Theory, by Allain (2009. Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, vol. 21, 1–22), Hartwig (2007....