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We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932555
We use learning in an equilibrium model to explain the puzzling predictive power of the volatility risk premium (VRP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892623
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012505469
The option implied volatility spread and skew predict stock returns. These variables also reflect the expected cost of … stock returns; however, the volatility spread and skew do not once this implied fee is considered. Results are similar for a … yet in stock prices. These findings indicate that the volatility spread and skew predict returns because they proxy for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855076
Option-based measures can predict underlying stock returns, due to differences in price discovery and price pressure effects between options and underlying stocks. We investigate stock return predictability by various option price-based measures using REITs. REITs are more transparent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012593737
The study introduces empirical evidence that there are statistically significant relationships between intensity of upcoming aggregate merger activity and the present values of the factors HML and SMB in the Fama-French three-factor model of assets pricing
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065679
exposure to changes in the price of the underlying stock (delta), and exposure to changes in implied volatility (vega) are …-known market, size, book-to-market, momentum, and short-term reversal factors. Additional volatility, stock, and option market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111682
We investigate the informational content of credit default swap (CDS) spreads for future volatility of (firm) assets … and equity. In the cross-section, CDS spreads are significantly more informative about future asset than equity volatility … fundamental difference in the cross-sectional predictability of asset and equity volatility. This difference lies in the leverage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848868
exposure to changes in the underlying stock price (delta), and exposure to changes in implied volatility (vega) are removed …-to-market, momentum, short-term reversal, volatility, or option market factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094978