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We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
We study the cyclical dynamics of consumption in the euro area (EA) and the large EA countries by distinguishing durable from nondurable expenditures. We adopt a theoretical partial equilibrium framework to justify the identification strategy of our empirical model, a time-varying parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012197836
What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to uncertainty shocks, firms increase their markups,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373603
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691548
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110907
Hinsicht vergleichen wir die Auswirkungen eines Unsicherheitsschocks in den USA und der Eurozone. Unseren Ergebnissen zufolge … shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939
in the Euro Area. In both cases, using higher-moment restrictions significantly sharpens identification. After a shock to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014335939
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021911
economy, namely a demand shock and a shock to bank capital. The main findings of the paper are as follows: i) Impulse …-response analysis shows that in response to a shock to bank capital, banks boost capital ratios by reducing their relative exposure to …) Historical shock decomposition analysis shows that bank capital shocks have contributed to increasing capital ratios since the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662933
model. We find that a union aggregate systemic risk shock results in a sharp decline in output, with two thirds of the …This paper empirically investigates the transmission of systemic risk across the Euro Area by employing a Global VAR … importance in spreading systemic risk compared to core countries. Then, we incorporate high-frequency monetary surprises into the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012704731