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What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to uncertainty shocks, firms increase their markups,...
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We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
the Maltese economy. The model focuses on five broad macroeconomic shocks hitting the euro area; an aggregate demand shock … global market for oil, a generic monetary policy shock encompassing both conventional and unconventional interventions, and a … financial stress shock. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods over a sample that goes from 2003Q1 to 2019Q4 and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818649
We study state dependence in the impact of monetary policy shocks over the leverage cycle for a panel of 10 euro area countries. We use a Bayesian Threshold Panel SVAR with regime classifications based on credit and house prices cycles. We find that monetary policy shocks trigger a smaller...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241107
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110907
Hinsicht vergleichen wir die Auswirkungen eines Unsicherheitsschocks in den USA und der Eurozone. Unseren Ergebnissen zufolge … shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939
shock. According to our results, an increase in uncertainty has a strong negative impact on economic activity, consumer …. Uncertainty does not only impact that country where the shock originates but also has large cross-border effects. In that respect … the responses of national variables to a (foreign) uncertainty shock, indicating evidence of an international business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691548
-bank loans to be substitutes for bank loans with negative responses to a positive loan supply shock while trade credit is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034573
We explore empirically the transmission of U.S. financial and macroeconomic uncertainty to emerging market economies (EMEs). We start by assuming that there are crucial differences between volatility and uncertainty, and between the latter and its shocks. With the help of Bayesian vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837420