Inflation targeting, primary surpluses and a floating exchange rate under supply and exchange-rate shocks can combine to create deleterious effects on the economic dynamic. This paper reports on computer simulation experiments using a dynamic and stochastic model that can incorporate different...

A recent literature has analysed the Central Bank's credibility nature and determinants. In general, a Central Bank with higher credibility can implement a more efficient monetary policy, which is expressed through lower social costs in terms of volatility of relevant variables, such as output...

From a methodological perspective, the paper aims to introduce a relativization of the dilemma stability versus unstability in the economic science. Although it was announced by Vercelli (1991), it is not well developed in Economics. While the mainstream regards the economic system as having an...

This work applies Markov-switching models, a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) and Cointegration approach to verify the empirical relationships between expected and effective short-term interest rates in Brazil. The main results corroborate the theoretical notion that the Central Bank can...

By implementing the Copulas method, this work analyses the dependence relationship or structure between the Brazilian consumer observed inflation and the expected inflation, from January 2005 to June 2011. Its results are consistent with some works for the Brazilian case, as the dependence...