We augment the increasingly common practice of typically ad hoc robustness tests into a research methodology that allows reliable inferences when researchers do not know the true data-generating process. We identify three principal sources of model uncertainty. First, theories simplify and aim...

We develop a new parameter stability test against the alternative of observation driven generalized autoregressive score dynamics. The new test generalizes the ARCH-LM test of Engle (1982) to settings beyond time-varying volatility and exploits any autocorrelation in the likelihood scores under...

This paper estimates demand for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems using a new approach to address three empirical challenges that often arise with count data: excess zeros, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogeneity of price. Our results imply a price elasticity of demand for solar PV...

This paper estimates the impact of elite school attendance on long- run outcomes including completed education, income and fertility. Our data consists of individuals born in the 1950s and educated in a UK dis- trict that assigned students to either elite or non-elite secondary schools. Using...

This paper estimates the impact of elite school attendance on long-run outcomes including completed education, income and fertility. Our data consists of individuals born in the 1950s and educated in a UK district that assigned students to either elite or non-elite secondary schools. Using...

This paper considers estimation and inference concerning the autoregressive coefficient (ρ) in a panel autoregression for which the degree of persistence in the time dimension is unknown. The main objective is to construct confidence intervals for ρ that are asymptotically valid, having...

This paper considers the finite sample distribution of the 2SLS estimator and derives bounds on its exact bias in the presence of weak and/or many instruments. We then contrast the behavior of the exact bias expressions and the asymptotic expansions currently popular in the literature, including...

This paper shows how a weighted average of a forward and reverse Jackknife IV estimator (JIVE) yields estimators that are robust against heteroscedasticity and many instruments. These estimators, called HFUL (Heteroscedasticity robust Fuller) and HLIM (Heteroskedasticity robust limited...

We examine the relationship between child quantity and quality. Motivated by the theoretical ambiguity regarding the sign of the marginal effects of additional siblings on children’s outcomes, our empirical model allows for an unrestricted relationship between family size and child outcomes....