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This paper presents an overview of several econometric tools available to test for the presences of asset price bubbles …, Cointegration methods were used to detect asset price bubbles. Unfortunately, if there are collapsing bubbles, Cointegration … techniques cannot identify multiple bubbles. To overcome this Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015) developed a right tailed Augmented …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964111
This paper provides the limit theory of real time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in … Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) and Phillips, Shi and Yu (2013b, PSY). Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble … bubbles. Under certain explicit conditions, the moving window detector of PSY is shown to be a consistent dating algorithm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075934
This paper provides an invariance theorem that facilitates testing for the existence of an asset price bubble in a market where the price evolves as a Markov diffusion process. The test involves only the properties of the price process' quadratic variation under the statistical probability. It...
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Identifying and dating explosive bubbles when there is periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major … (2011, PWY) are affected by multiple bubbles and may fail to be consistent. The present paper proposes a generalized version …-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles, and proves consistency of this dating procedure. Simulations …
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and date-stamping financial bubbles. In Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the SADF and GSADF tests may reveal …). Simulating stock-price trajectories that contain these parametric bubbles, we demonstrate that the SADF and GSADF tests can have …
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