inflation. However, forecast improvements are rarely statistically significant. In addition, we find little evidence of the …We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed … analyze output gap revisions and assess the usefulness of these gaps in forecasting total CPI inflation and three newly …

then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those …We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections. We …

model classes and then merged into a single point forecast using simple performance-based weighting methods. We find that no … single model clearly dominates over all forecast horizons, subsamples and target variables. This highlights that when …

In this paper, we estimate the distribution of future inflation and growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the … inflation and GDP growth as moving averages of economic and financial conditions. Then, we translate the conditional moments …. We show that the probabilities of inflation and GDP growth derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

's view to forecast FOMC forecasts. Specifically, monetary policy is forward looking and, in its pursuit of transparency, it …-of-sample predictions for inflation, unemployment, and the federal funds rate for 2018. As the reader will soon realize, there is a lot more …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …