We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...

We investigate the phenomenon of trade re-allocations across countries as a result of the U.S.- China trade war. Using quarterly data on U.S. imports, we find evidence, as do others, of trade diversion in a range of industries and products, including products not targeted by U.S. tariffs on...

The paper analyzes the international context in which negotiations between the European Union and United States on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have been launched in July 2013. This context includes both the repeated failures of the Doha Round negotiations as well as the...

In light of a recent paper, Sedrakyan (2022), which studied the impact of regional trade agreements on the change in trade of Indonesia, this Commentary tries to delve more into the role of Indonesia within the ASEAN free trade area (AFTA)

Because international trade theory has not provided an unambiguous prediction on the impact of trade on growth, a vast literature tried to identify the relationship empirically. After summarizing the influential large country case studies of the 1970s and early 1980s - which showed the folly of...

Does "infant industry" preferential access durably boost export performance? This paper exploits significant trade policy changes in the United States (US) to address this question. The expansion of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) products for less developed countries in 1997 and the...

Many different approaches have developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). Moving on from models using simple dummy variables, today a range of databases can capture different aspects of NTMs and FTAs. Some assess the depth of FTAs by extracting...

Does "infant industry" preferential access durably boost export performance? This paper exploits significant trade policy changes in the United States (US) to address this question. The expansion of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) products for less developed countries in 1997 and the...

Stagnating globalisation, the possible weaponisation of dependencies by autocracies, and US-China tensions threaten to disrupt Germany's export-driven economic model. But German efforts to 'derisk' that model remain underdeveloped, as does its policy toolkit. Germany's most important trade...