We develop a model of the gambler's fallacy -- the mistaken belief that random sequences should exhibit systematic reversals. We show that an individual who holds this belief and observes a sequence of signals can exaggerate the magnitude of changes in an underlying state but underestimate their...

The empirical evidence on investor disagreement and trading volume is difficult to reconcile in standard rational expectations models. We develop a dynamic model in which investors disagree about the interpretations of public information. We obtain a closed-form linear equilibrium that allows us...

We examine the role of financial analysts in helping fund managers make better investment decisions. First, we model how a fund manager utilizes reports on a stock produced by two analysts: a biased sell-side analyst who works for an outside brokerage firm, and an unbiased buy-side analyst who...

We study the relation between cognitive abilities and stockholding using the recent Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which has detailed data on wealth and portfolio composition of individuals aged 50 in 11 European countries and three indicators of cognitive abilities:...

In this paper we evaluate the most widely used spread decomposition models. We argue that Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) should have lower adverse selection costs than appropriate control securities. We make this assertion because ETFs have the characteristics of a basket security described by...

One of the most striking results in experimental economics is the ease with which market bubbles form in a laboratory setting and the difficulty of preventing them. This article re-examines bubble experiments in light of the results of an earlier series of market experiments that examine how...

A real options theory - in its classic formulation - suggests that firms invest less during times of high uncertainty, that is, uncertainty depresses investment. However, several theoretical extensions predict that the relationship between investment and uncertainty may be non-linear, or even...

News about an individual stock normally has only a trivial impact on the aggregate economy. The news of the aggregate stock market, however, may have a significant impact on the prospects of the economy, and so has a large impact on the pricing kernel. This difference between the aggregate stock...

This paper studies the relationship between investor risk preferences and asset returns. The paper provides direct evidence on the risk aversion of participants in a securities market. It uses the prices of lottery bonds issued by the Imperial Russian Government in 1864 and 1866 to estimate...