. Estimation uses 13,193 observations on quarterly US inflation forecasts since 1981. The main finding is a significantly larger … weight on expected future inflation than on past inflation, a finding which also is estimated with much more precision than … in the standard approach. Inflation dynamics also are stable over time, with no decline in inflation inertia from the …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity are analyzed within a class of extended Phillips … models that describe changing patterns in low and high frequencies and backward as well as forward inflation expectation … frequencies are carefully modeled. Modeling inflation expectations using survey data and adding level shifts and stochastic …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a Phillips …

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The … representative agent is assumed to behave as an econometrician, employing a time series model for inflation that allows for both … permanent and temporary shocks. The near-unity coefficient on expected inflation in the Phillips curve causes the agent …

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon … explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price …

This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in … moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the two models perform similarly in almost all countries. Under estimated … unconditional moments of inflation dynamics better while sticky information is more successful in matching co-movement of inflation …

The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather … inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in … inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a …

. The representative agent's perceived law of motion allows for both temporary and permanent shocks to inflation, the latter … intended to capture the possibility of evolving shifts in the central bank's inflation target. The agent's perceived optimal … forecast rule defined by the Kalman filter is parameterized to be consistent with the observed moments of the inflation time …