.S. inflation. We examine the overall performance of Phillips curves relative to some well-known benchmarks, the efficiency with … which the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts of inflation use real activity information, and shifts in the key … determinants of the reduced-form 'triangle model' of inflation. We develop a structural model-based interpretation of observed …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard bench marks in forecasting U.S. inflation … once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its … predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest …

It has been widely argued that inflation persistence since WWII has been widespread and durable and that it can only be …

inflationary expectations. The main element underlying Spain`s recent disinflation appears to be a fall in inflation expectations …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

The relationship central to most inflation models, between slack and inflation, seems to have weakened. Do we need a …-cycle decomposition - to show that inflation models should more explicitly and comprehensively control for changes in the global economy … rates, and producer price competition can all significantly affect inflation, even after controlling for the standard …

Consumer Price Index. We find that online price indices anticipate changes in official inflation trends more than one month in … only predict the contemporaneous inflation rate. Our baseline specification also outperforms statistical benchmark … States. Similarly, our quarterly forecast for the US inflation rate consistently outperforms the Survey of Professional …

We analyze the dramatic decline in India's inflation over the last two years using an augmented Phillips Curve approach …, we find that inflation is a highly persistent process in India, reflecting very adaptive expectations and the backward …

This country note discusses measures of inflation used in monetary policy formulation in Singapore, and assesses the … relative influence of global and regional factors in determining domestic inflation dynamics. It is found that the regional … inflation expectations have continue d to play significant roles. Indeed, the central bank's gauge of inflation expectations …