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We consider the best way to extract timely signals from newspaper text and use them to forecast macroeconomic variables … editorial style. We find that newspaper text can improve economic forecasts both in absolute and marginal terms. We introduce a … powerful new method of incorporating text information in forecasts that combines counts of terms with supervised machine …
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We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...
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