Security analysts are often considered experts in the industries they follow. We analyze the impact of such expertise on market prices and returns in a setting where firms' earnings components may differ in their levels of persistence over time. In this context we show that a firm's...

We study a model where investment decisions are based on investors' information about the unknown and endogenous return of the investment. The information of investors consists of endogenously determined messages sold by financial analysts who have access to both public and private information...

Investors have expressed concern over US stocks' persistent high valuations relative to fundamentals, and the accompanying forecasts of below-average stock returns. This issue is important, as both consumer and business spending is thought to rise and fall with the value of stocks. In this paper...

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy third order stochastically dominates buying and holding the underlying asset in a mean-variance-skewness sense using monthly returns of value-weighted decile portfolios sorted by market size, book-to-market cash-flow-to-price,...

This paper examines the information contents of trading activities in the corporate bond market prior to earnings announcements. We find that the direction of pre-announcement bond trading is significantly related to earnings surprises. Such linkage is most evident prior to negative news and in...

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy third order stochastically dominates buying and holding the underlying asset in a mean-variance-skewness sense using monthly returns of value-weighted decile portfolios sorted by market size, book-to-market cash-flow-to-price,...

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy third order stochastically dominates buying and holding the underlying asset in a mean-variance-skewness sense using monthly returns of value-weighted decile portfolios sorted by market size, book-to-market cash-flow-to-price,...

In this paper, we revisit the myths regarding the superior performance of market timing strategies based on moving average and time-series momentum rules. These active timing strategies are very appealing to investors because of their extraordinary simplicity and because they promise substantial...

We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio holdings of individual investors, and investigate its cross-sectional predictive power. Our key innovation is that this covariance is measured across the left tail states of the...