Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large...

In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...

This paper analyses the determination of match attendance in the German premier football league by applying models derived from Peel/Thomas (1992) and Janssens/Késenne (1987). Additionally we develop an improved version, where we incorporate the supporter clubs and the weather conditions as...

According to the prospect theory financial investors tend to sell winners too early and ride losers too long. Therefore, demand for financial advise should be high in a bull market and low in a bear market. Thus, we test the hypothesis whether the demand for business magazines is somehow related...

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...

We analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the fall of 2000 to support the external stability of the euro. To this end, in a first step different channels through which interventions may influence exchange rate...

Capital controls lower the variability of the exchange rate and reduce the risk premium as well as the domestic interest rate. On the other hand, capital controls reduce the number of noise traders and, therefore, the risk-bearing capacity of the market, leading to higher interest rates and a...

Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Evolution der IT-Outsourcing-Industrie in Deutschland von 1990 bis 2006 aus Sicht der Industrielebenszyklusforschung. Ein neu erarbeiteter Datensatz wird daraufhin analysiert, inwieweit ein Shakeout vorliegt bzw. in welchen Punkten sich die Entwicklung in einer...

In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker einen Anreiz haben könnten, einem Herdentrieb zu...