Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series, we find that technology shocks induce an ‘S’- shaped cross-correlation function for the trade balance and the terms of trade (S-curve). In calibrating a prototypical international business cycle model to match the S-curve under complete and...

In this work we assess the existence of a S-Curve pattern in ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC-10) for the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade. Empirical results support the existence of this curve for Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, and also for an...

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires...

Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on...

In this paper, I argue that international policy coordination requires to include both monetary as well as fiscal policy because both sides include policy instruments that allow the strategic manipulation of the country's terms of trade. Hence, the coordination of one part of national...

The goal of this paper is to address the role of the real effective exchange rate (fundamentals, misalignment and volatility) for the current account using a panel data analysis for a set of 58 countries, over the period of 1994-2014. The results suggest that exchange rate misalignment is...

Germany has had a large and persistent current account surplus for the past almost two decades. We review different theoretical explanations of this phenomenon and conclude from the empirical litera-ture that Germany's external surplus reflects an imbalance that is a threat to macroeconomic...

This paper investigates how much of the current account adjustment after the global financial crisis in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we extend the IMF's external balance assessment methodology to allow for country-specific slopes and intercepts. The good fit of...

This paper studies how removing barriers to competition in the nontraded goods sector affects the current account, the real exchange rate, and factor prices in a small open economy. We show that the expansion of the nontraded sector that results from a deregulation shock is associated with an...