This article examines the impact of serial correlation in high frequency returns on the realized variance measure. In particular, it is shown that the realized variance measure yields a biased estimate of the conditional return variance when returns are serially correlated. Using 10 years of...

While existing cross-country studies on political budget cycles rely on annual data, we build a panel with quarterly and monthly data from Latin American and OECD countries over the 1980-2005 period. Disaggregated data allow to center the electoral year more precisely, and show the effects are...

If there is exchange market pressure (EMP), monetary authorities can use the interest rate and official interventions to offset this depreciation tendency, or they can let the exchange rate change. We introduce a new approach to derive how these three variables should be combined to measure EMP....

I identify which theoretical model (random, stock–flow, or job queuing) best describes the matching mechanism in the labour market in Poland. The purpose of this work is to formulate policy recommendations aimed at increasing the number of matches. I use monthly registered unemployment data...

Abstract This paper delivers an up-to-date literature review dealing with aggregation over time of economic time series, e.g. the transformation of high-frequency data to low frequency data, with a focus on its benefits (the beauty) and its costs (the ugliness). While there are some benefits...

This paper tests whether aggregate matching is consistent with unemployment being mainly due to search frictions or due to job queues. Using U.K. data and correcting for temporal aggregation bias, estimates of the random matching function are consistent with previous work in this field, but...

Recent empirical studies have argued that the temporal dependencies in "nancialmarket volatility are best characterized by long memory, or fractionally integrated, timeseries models. Meanwhile, little is known about the properties of the semiparametric inference procedures underlying much of...

This paper develops a framework that allows us to combine the tools provided by structural models for economic interpretation and policy analysis with those of reduced-form models designed for nowcasting. We show how to map a quarterly dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model into a...

This paper shows how to decompose weakly stationary time series into the sum, across time scales, of uncorrelated components associated with different degrees of persistence. In particular, we provide an Extended Wold Decomposition based on an isometric scaling operator that makes averages of...

This paper shows that the LM statistic for testing first order serial correlation in regression models can be computed using the Kalman Filter. It is shown tha.t when there are missing observations, the LM statistic for this tesi is equivalent to the tesi statistic derived by Robinson (1985)...