The paper suggests two encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations. An invariant measure for forecast accuracy is necessary as the conclusions otherwise can depend on how the forecasts are reported (e.g., as in level or growth rates)....

The parameters in the cointegration vector and the loading parameters are not the only interesting parameters in a vector cointegration model. With a reformulation of the model the intercept parameters can be decomposed into growth parameters and cointegration mean parameters. These parameters...

Modelling the Norwegian exchange rate against a basket of currencies, we find a robust long-term link between the real exchange rate and real interest differential that is consistent with purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP). However, PPP alone is rejected. These...

This study compares the forecasting performance of a structural exchange rate model that combines the purchasing power parity condition with the interest rate differential in the long run, with some alternative models. The analysis is applied to the Norwegian exchange rate. The long run...

The paper describes a procedure for decomposing the deterministic terms in cointegrated VAR models into growth rate parameters and cointegration mean parameters. These parameters express long-run properties of the model. For example, the growth rate parameters tell us how much to expect...

This paper addresses the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle for commodity currencies. A substantial part of the literature on commodity currencies has found that, despite controlling for the effect of commodity prices, PPP does not hold in the long run. We show that once we also control for...

In a system with n input factors there are n − 1 independent cost shares. An often-used approach in estimating factor demand systems is to (implicitly or explicitly) assume that there is a (independent) cointegrating relationship for each of the n − 1 independent cost shares. However, due to...

This article introduces the concept of co-non-linearity. Co-non-linearity is an example of a common feature in time series (Engle and Koziciki, 1993, J. Bus. Econ. Statist.) and an extension of the concept of common nonlinear components (Anderson and Vahid, 1998, J. Econometrics). If some time...

The recent boom in house prices in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility of household financial distress are of concern among some central banks. We revisit the empirical modelling of house prices and household debt with a policy-oriented perspective using Norwegian...

This paper investigates the quality of preliminary figures in the Norwegian national accounts. To address the problem of few observations in such analyses, we use some recently developed system tests. Preliminary figures for gross fixed capital formation (investments) under-predict the final...