forecasting results to results from Monte Carlo simulations of DGPs that either assume stability or allow breaks in the DGP. This … the output gap coefficients can lead to a breakdown in the power of tests of equal forecast accuracy and forecast …

The ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve to explain US inflation dynamics when official central bank forecasts … (Greenbook forecasts) are used as a proxy for inflation expectations is examined. The New Keynesian Phillips curve is estimated … using actual data on future inflation as conventionally employed in empirical work under the assumption of rational …

countries. In an influential contribution, Galí and Gertler (1999) have suggested building theoretical inflation series … conditional on a reduced-form VAR forecasting process for the marginal cost. We present empirical evidence supportive of a simple … curve holds true, theoretical inflation persistence will be shown to arise exclusively because of inertia in marginal cost …

) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models …