indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if …In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

The authors conduct an empirical analysis of the role of labor market activities in inflation and conclude that wage … growth is not very informative for predicting price inflation. But price inflation does seem to help predict wage growth …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models …

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that … only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the …

States. Similarly, our quarterly forecast for the US inflation rate consistently outperforms the Survey of Professional …Are survey-based forecasts unbeatable? They are not. This paper introduces online price indices to forecast the … Consumer Price Index. We find that online price indices anticipate changes in official inflation trends more than one month in …