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shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a non-linear DSGE model suggest that these empirical results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012503567
that such disturbances are important drivers of output fluctuations in both economies, we find the shock responses of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897983
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
This paper proposes a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregression with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the … flexibility in terms of achieving shrinkage. The factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by … assuming that it is the joint volatility process that determines the dynamics of the variance-covariance matrix of the common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012037349
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011871462
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.K. economy has changed over time. To this end, we propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on key macroeconomic and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505897
This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448758
We provide novel evidence that technological news and uncertainty shocks, identified one at a time using VAR models as in the literature, are correlated; that is, they are not truly structural. We then proceed by proposing an identification scheme to disentangle the effects of news and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967370