When do opposition groups decide to mount a terrorism campaign and when do they enter an open civil conflict against … the ruling government? This paper models an opposition group's choice between peace, terrorism, and open conflict …. Terrorism emerges if executive constraints are intermediate and rents are sizeable. Open conflict is predicted to emerge under …

When do opposition groups decide to mount a terrorism campaign and when do they enter an open civil conflict against … the ruling government? This paper models an opposition group's choice between peace, terrorism, and open conflict …. Terrorism emerges if executive constraints are intermediate and rents are sizeable. Open conflict is predicted to emerge under …

ethnic conflict. A new type of bargaining failure due to multiple types of potential conflicts (and hence multiple threat …

geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when …

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent …

We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the … intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations … find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7 …

We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the … intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations … find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7 …

spatial inequality, national economic performance, and the incidence of armed conflict. By providing a theoretical rent …

We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 … countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in onshore-rich countries …, while they decrease this probability in offshore-rich countries. We use a simple model of conflict to illustrate how these …

We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 … countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in onshore-rich countries …, while they decrease this probability in offshore-rich countries. We use a simple model of conflict to illustrate how these …